Bitcoin experienced a dramatic 5.2% decline over the past 24 hours, falling to $90,140 and extending its 7-day losses to a staggering -14.5%. This sharp correction has wiped over $1.1 trillion from the broader cryptocurrency market since October, leaving investors questioning whether this is a temporary pullback or the beginning of a prolonged bear market.
The crash comes from a perfect storm of three major factors: Mt. Gox creditor repayments triggering sell pressure fears, critical technical support levels breaking down, and a systemic deleveraging event across crypto markets. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for any investor navigating this volatile period.
This comprehensive analysis breaks down the key drivers behind Bitcoin’s decline, examines the technical indicators, and provides actionable insights for protecting your portfolio in this turbulent market environment.
Bitcoin’s Current Market Status#
Price Action Overview#
Current Price: $90,140 (as of November 18, 2025) 24-Hour Change: -5.2% 7-Day Decline: -14.5% 7-Month Low: $89,650 Market Cap Impact: $1.1 trillion wiped from crypto markets since October 6
Critical Price Levels#
Resistance Levels:
- $105,620: 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA)
- $110,359: Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level
- $120,000: Psychological resistance
Support Levels:
- $90,000: Psychological support (recently broken)
- $85,000-$87,000: Next major support zone
- $74,000: February 2025 low (critical bear market indicator)
Factor 1: Mt. Gox Repayment Progress (Bearish Impact)#
The Latest Transfer#
On November 18, 2025, Mt. Gox trustees executed their first major Bitcoin movement in eight months, transferring 10,422 BTC ($936 million) to a new wallet address. This transfer immediately sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency market, despite clarifications from trustees that the move was for “secure storage” rather than immediate selling.
Understanding Mt. Gox Background#
What is Mt. Gox? Mt. Gox was once the world’s largest Bitcoin exchange, handling 70% of all Bitcoin transactions globally. In 2014, the exchange collapsed after losing 850,000 BTC (worth $450 million at the time) to hackers and mismanagement. After years of bankruptcy proceedings, creditors are finally receiving repayments in 2025.
Current Holdings:
- Total BTC held: 140,000 BTC
- Current value: ~$12.6 billion
- Creditors awaiting payment: ~24,000 individuals and entities
- Extended deadline: Through 2025
Market Impact Analysis#
Why This Creates Sell Pressure:
Creditor Behavior: Many creditors have waited over 11 years for repayment. Once they receive Bitcoin, a significant portion is expected to immediately sell to realize gains or recover losses.
Profit Margins: Creditors who lost Bitcoin at 2014 prices ($450-$600) are now receiving it at $90,000+, representing 15,000%+ returns. This creates massive incentive to sell.
Overhang Effect: With 140,000 BTC still held by Mt. Gox, the market must absorb potential selling pressure equivalent to 0.7% of Bitcoin’s total supply over the coming months.
Psychological Impact: Each transfer announcement triggers fear and preemptive selling, even before actual distributions occur.
Historical Precedent: Previous Mt. Gox-related transfers in 2023 and 2024 resulted in:
- Average 8-12% price drops within 48 hours
- 2-3 week recovery periods
- Increased volatility (30-day volatility spiking 40%+)
What This Means for Investors#
Short-term (1-3 months):
- Expect continued volatility around Mt. Gox announcements
- Potential for additional 10-15% downside if major distributions occur
- Trading volumes likely to remain elevated
Long-term (6-12 months):
- Once distributions complete, removes major overhang
- Could create buying opportunity at depressed prices
- Market sentiment may improve post-resolution
Factor 2: Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)#
Critical Support Failure#
Bitcoin’s breach of the $90,000 psychological support level triggered a cascade of automated selling, accelerating the decline and pushing the price to a 7-month low of $89,650.
Key Technical Indicators#
1. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
- Current Reading: 28.93
- Status: Deep oversold territory (below 30)
- Interpretation: Suggests potential for short-term bounce, but can remain oversold during strong downtrends
Historical Context:
- RSI below 30 has preceded bounces 68% of the time in past 5 years
- However, during 2022 bear market, RSI remained below 30 for extended periods
- Average recovery time from oversold: 5-14 days
2. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
- Current Histogram: -1,023
- Status: Strong bearish divergence
- Signal: Momentum strongly negative, no bullish crossover in sight
What This Means:
- Selling pressure remains dominant
- No immediate reversal signals
- Potential for further downside before stabilization
3. Fibonacci Retracement Levels
- Failed Level: 23.6% retracement at $110,359
- Current Position: Below all major Fibonacci levels
- Next Target: 38.2% retracement at $85,000
Fibonacci Analysis: Bitcoin’s failure to hold the 23.6% retracement level after October’s rally suggests the correction is deeper than initially anticipated. The next logical support lies at the 38.2% level around $85,000.
Moving Average Analysis#
30-Day SMA: $105,620
- Price is 14.7% below the 30-day SMA
- This average now acts as resistance
- Historically, price below 30-day SMA indicates short-term bearish trend
200-Day SMA: $78,500
- Still well above this critical long-term support
- As long as price holds above 200-day SMA, long-term bull market intact
- Break below would signal potential bear market
Algorithmic Trading Impact#
Stop-Loss Cascade: When Bitcoin broke below $90,000, it triggered:
- Automated stop-loss orders from retail traders
- Liquidations of leveraged long positions
- Algorithmic selling from quantitative funds
- Market maker hedging activities
Estimated Impact:
- ~$2.3 billion in long positions liquidated in 24 hours
- Average leverage ratio: 15-20x
- Liquidation cascade amplified natural selling by 3-4x
Chart Pattern Analysis#
Descending Triangle Formation:
- Lower highs since October peak
- Horizontal support at $90K (now broken)
- Pattern suggests continuation to $82K-$85K range
Volume Profile:
- Declining volume on rallies (weak buying interest)
- Increasing volume on declines (strong selling pressure)
- Volume-weighted average price (VWAP): $96,500
Factor 3: Systemic Leverage Unwind (Bearish Impact)#
The $1.1 Trillion Wipeout#
Since October 6, 2025, cryptocurrency markets have shed a staggering $1.1 trillion in total market capitalization, representing one of the largest deleveraging events in crypto history.
Understanding the Leverage Problem#
What Happened in October: During Bitcoin’s rally to all-time highs in October 2025, traders aggressively increased leverage:
- Perpetual futures open interest peaked at $45 billion
- Average leverage ratios: 50-100x
- Funding rates reached extreme positive levels (+0.15% per 8 hours)
- Retail FOMO drove speculative excess
The Unwind:
- Open Interest Decline: -19.8% in 30 days ($9 billion reduction)
- Liquidations: $8.7 billion in long positions liquidated
- Funding Rates: Now negative at -0.0019775 (bearish sentiment)
- Leverage Ratio: Dropped from 25x average to 12x
Derivatives Market Analysis#
Perpetual Futures Data:
Bitcoin Perpetual Futures:
- Open interest: $36 billion (down from $45 billion)
- Funding rate: -0.001% (slightly negative)
- Long/short ratio: 0.92 (more shorts than longs)
- Liquidation heatmap: Major cluster at $85K-$87K
Options Market:
- Put/call ratio: 1.45 (bearish)
- Implied volatility: 68% (elevated)
- Max pain price: $92,000
- December expiry: $12 billion in open interest
Institutional vs. Retail Behavior#
Institutional Activity:
- Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows: $1.2 billion in past week
- Grayscale GBTC: Net outflows of $450 million
- MicroStrategy: No new purchases announced
- Institutional sentiment: Risk-off mode
Retail Behavior:
- Exchange inflows increased 45% (selling pressure)
- Retail wallet balances declining
- Social media sentiment: Fear & Greed Index at 22 (Extreme Fear)
- Google search trends: “Bitcoin crash” up 340%
Contagion Effects#
Altcoin Impact:
- Ethereum: -18% in 7 days
- Solana: -22% in 7 days
- Altcoin market cap: -25% average
- DeFi Total Value Locked (TVL): -$45 billion
Broader Market Correlation:
- Bitcoin correlation with S&P 500: 0.65 (high)
- Risk-off sentiment affecting all risk assets
- Traditional markets also under pressure
- Flight to safety (USD, gold, treasuries)
Market Sentiment Analysis#
Fear & Greed Index#
Current Reading: 22 (Extreme Fear) Previous Week: 45 (Neutral) Change: -23 points in 7 days
Historical Context:
- Readings below 25 have historically marked local bottoms
- Average recovery time from extreme fear: 3-6 weeks
- However, 2022 bear market saw extended periods below 20
Social Media Sentiment#
Twitter/X Analysis:
- Bearish mentions: 68% (up from 35% last week)
- Influencer sentiment: Cautiously bearish
- Hashtag trends: #BitcoinCrash, #CryptoCrash trending
- Engagement: 3x normal levels (panic-driven)
Reddit Sentiment:
- r/Bitcoin: 72% bearish posts
- r/CryptoCurrency: Moon distribution ratio declining
- r/BitcoinMarkets: Technical analysts calling for $80K
- Overall mood: Fearful but some contrarian optimism
On-Chain Metrics#
Exchange Flows:
- Net exchange inflows: +45,000 BTC in 7 days (bearish)
- Whale movements: Large holders accumulating at $90K
- Retail behavior: Panic selling evident
HODL Waves:
- Coins held 1+ years: 68% (stable)
- Coins held 6-12 months: 15% (some selling)
- Coins held <6 months: 17% (heavy selling)
Realized Price:
- Current: $90,140
- Realized price: $45,000
- MVRV Ratio: 2.0 (historically neutral)
What’s Next: Scenarios and Probabilities#
Scenario 1: Stabilization and Recovery (40% Probability)#
Thesis: Bitcoin finds support at $85K-$90K range, oversold conditions trigger bounce
Catalysts:
- RSI oversold bounce
- Whale accumulation at these levels
- Mt. Gox fears prove overblown
- Positive macro developments
Price Targets:
- Short-term: Recovery to $95K-$100K
- Medium-term: Retest of $110K resistance
- Timeline: 2-4 weeks
What to Watch:
- RSI crossing back above 30
- MACD bullish crossover
- Exchange outflows (accumulation)
- Funding rates turning positive
Scenario 2: Further Decline to $74K-$85K (35% Probability)#
Thesis: Technical breakdown continues, support levels fail, bear market confirmed
Catalysts:
- Mt. Gox begins major distributions
- Continued leverage unwind
- Macro headwinds intensify
- Break below $85K support
Price Targets:
- Next support: $85K-$87K
- Critical level: $74K (February low)
- Worst case: $65K-$70K (200-week MA)
- Timeline: 1-3 months
What to Watch:
- Break below $85K with volume
- 200-day SMA test at $78.5K
- Continued ETF outflows
- Negative funding rates persisting
Scenario 3: Prolonged Consolidation (25% Probability)#
Thesis: Bitcoin trades sideways in $85K-$95K range for extended period
Catalysts:
- Uncertainty around Mt. Gox timing
- Lack of clear bullish or bearish catalysts
- Market waiting for clarity
- Low conviction from both bulls and bears
Price Range: $85K-$95K Timeline: 2-3 months Resolution: Eventually breaks out in either direction
Investment Strategies for Current Market#
For Long-Term Holders (HODLers)#
Strategy: Dollar-cost averaging through volatility
Action Plan:
- Don’t panic sell: If your thesis hasn’t changed, hold
- Accumulate on dips: Set buy orders at $85K, $80K, $75K
- Reduce leverage: If using any leverage, reduce or eliminate
- Review allocation: Ensure crypto is appropriate % of portfolio (5-10% max)
Risk Management:
- Only invest what you can afford to lose
- Maintain 6-12 month emergency fund
- Don’t check prices obsessively
- Focus on long-term (4+ year) horizon
For Active Traders#
Strategy: Range trading and risk management
Action Plan:
- Set stop losses: Protect capital with 5-8% stops
- Trade the range: Buy support ($85K-$87K), sell resistance ($95K-$100K)
- Reduce position size: Trade smaller than normal given volatility
- Use options: Consider protective puts or collar strategies
Technical Levels to Watch:
- Buy zone: $85K-$87K (if reached with volume)
- Sell zone: $95K-$100K (resistance)
- Stop loss: Below $83K (invalidates support)
For New Investors#
Strategy: Wait for clarity before entering
Action Plan:
- Stay in cash: Don’t try to catch falling knives
- Watch for reversal signals: Wait for confirmed bottom
- Start small: When entering, use only 25-50% of intended allocation
- DCA approach: Spread purchases over 3-6 months
Entry Signals to Watch:
- RSI crosses above 30 and holds
- MACD bullish crossover
- Price reclaims $95K with volume
- Funding rates turn positive for 3+ days
Risk Factors to Monitor#
Short-Term Risks (Next 30 Days)#
1. Mt. Gox Distribution Announcements
- Impact: High
- Probability: Medium (40%)
- Potential Effect: -10% to -15% additional decline
2. Continued Leverage Liquidations
- Impact: Medium
- Probability: High (60%)
- Potential Effect: -5% to -10% additional decline
3. Macro Headwinds
- Impact: Medium
- Probability: Medium (50%)
- Potential Effect: Correlated selling with traditional markets
Medium-Term Risks (1-3 Months)#
1. Regulatory Developments
- SEC actions on crypto exchanges
- New legislation proposals
- International regulatory coordination
2. Institutional Sentiment Shift
- Continued ETF outflows
- Reduced corporate treasury purchases
- Hedge fund redemptions
3. Technical Bear Market Confirmation
- Break below $74K February low
- Death cross (50-day MA crosses below 200-day MA)
- Extended time below 200-day SMA
Opportunities in the Chaos#
Accumulation Zones#
For Long-Term Investors: Current prices represent potential accumulation opportunities if you believe in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition:
Tier 1 Buy Zone: $85K-$90K (current area)
- Allocation: 25% of intended investment
- Risk/Reward: Moderate
- Stop loss: $82K
Tier 2 Buy Zone: $75K-$80K
- Allocation: 35% of intended investment
- Risk/Reward: Better
- Stop loss: $72K
Tier 3 Buy Zone: $65K-$70K (if reached)
- Allocation: 40% of intended investment
- Risk/Reward: Excellent
- Stop loss: $60K
Altcoin Opportunities#
High-Quality Altcoins: Major altcoins have declined even more than Bitcoin (-20% to -30%), potentially offering better risk/reward:
Considerations:
- Ethereum: Down 18%, strong fundamentals
- Solana: Down 22%, high beta to Bitcoin
- Layer 2 solutions: Oversold, strong use cases
Warning: Altcoins are higher risk and can decline 50%+ in bear markets
Options Strategies#
For Sophisticated Investors:
1. Protective Puts
- Buy puts at $85K strike
- Cost: ~$2,500 per contract
- Protection against further decline
2. Covered Calls
- Sell calls at $100K strike
- Premium: ~$1,800 per contract
- Generate income while holding
3. Bull Put Spreads
- Sell $85K put, buy $80K put
- Credit: ~$1,200 per spread
- Profit if Bitcoin stays above $85K
Expert Opinions and Analysis#
Bullish Perspective#
Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy CEO): “Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain unchanged. Short-term volatility is noise. We continue to view Bitcoin as the best long-term store of value.”
Cathie Wood (ARK Invest): “Our price target of $1 million by 2030 remains intact. These corrections create buying opportunities for long-term investors.”
Bullish Arguments:
- Institutional adoption continuing despite volatility
- Bitcoin ETFs still hold $60+ billion in assets
- Halving effects still playing out
- Long-term scarcity narrative unchanged
Bearish Perspective#
Peter Schiff (Gold Advocate): “Bitcoin’s crash proves it’s not a store of value. Real assets like gold are holding up much better.”
Traditional Finance Analysts: “Crypto remains highly speculative. The leverage unwind could continue for months. Risk-off environment not favorable for Bitcoin.”
Bearish Arguments:
- Technical damage significant
- Mt. Gox overhang real and substantial
- Macro environment deteriorating
- Correlation with risk assets problematic
Neutral/Balanced View#
Realistic Assessment: Bitcoin is experiencing a normal, albeit sharp, correction after an extended rally. The combination of Mt. Gox fears, technical breakdown, and leverage unwind created a perfect storm. However, long-term fundamentals (scarcity, adoption, institutional interest) remain intact.
Key Questions:
- Will $85K support hold?
- How much Bitcoin will Mt. Gox creditors actually sell?
- Can Bitcoin decouple from risk-off sentiment?
- Will institutional buyers step in at lower prices?
Conclusion: Navigating the Storm#
Bitcoin’s 14.5% decline over seven days represents a significant correction driven by three primary factors: Mt. Gox transfer fears, technical support breakdown, and systemic deleveraging. While the short-term outlook remains uncertain, several key levels and catalysts will determine whether this is a temporary pullback or the beginning of a prolonged bear market.
Key Takeaways#
For All Investors:
- Don’t panic: Volatility is normal in crypto markets
- Assess your risk tolerance: Ensure your allocation is appropriate
- Focus on fundamentals: Has your long-term thesis changed?
- Manage risk: Use stop losses, reduce leverage, maintain diversification
Critical Levels to Watch:
- $85K-$87K: Next major support zone
- $74K: February low - break would confirm bear market
- $95K-$100K: Resistance on any bounce
- $105K: 30-day SMA - reclaim would be bullish
Catalysts to Monitor:
- Mt. Gox distribution announcements and timing
- Technical indicator reversals (RSI, MACD)
- Derivatives market sentiment (funding rates, open interest)
- Institutional flows (ETF inflows/outflows)
- Macro environment and risk sentiment
Final Thoughts#
The current market environment requires discipline, patience, and risk management. While the decline is painful for those who bought at higher prices, it’s important to maintain perspective. Bitcoin has experienced numerous 50%+ corrections throughout its history, and each time has eventually recovered to new highs.
Whether you’re a long-term holder, active trader, or potential new investor, the key is to have a clear strategy, stick to your risk management rules, and avoid emotional decision-making. The crypto market’s volatility creates both risks and opportunities - success comes from navigating both with discipline and patience.
The Bottom Line: Bitcoin’s crash to $90K is significant but not unprecedented. The combination of Mt. Gox fears, technical breakdown, and leverage unwind has created a challenging environment. However, for those with appropriate risk tolerance and long-term perspective, current prices may represent an opportunity. The next few weeks will be critical in determining whether this is a buying opportunity or the start of a deeper correction.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and risky. Always conduct your own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Last Updated: November 18, 2025, 4:00 PM EST
Next Update: November 20, 2025 (or sooner if significant developments occur)